Jon Moramarco, Partner with Gomberg-Fredrikson, shares data from their latest wine report, including an uptick in U.S. wine shipments as well as changing consumer trends in a $109 billion industry.
After two years of declining wine sales volume in the U.S. market, a new report suggests that the situation may be improving. Developed by Gomberg-Fredrikson & Associates, a wine market intelligence company established in 1948 that uses U.S. government data to analyze wine shipments and revenues, the report shows a positive uptick in wine shipments for the first quarter of 2025.
“We are seeing an uptick in both California wine shipments and imported wine in the first quarter of this year,” stated Jon Moramarco, Partner and Editor with Gomberg-Fredrikson and Managing Partner of bw166, in an online interview.
“The uptick started early in the second quarter of 2024. My thoughts are that most of the wine inventory reductions had taken place that were needed so this stopped some of the downturn,” he continued.
Moramarco uses data sourced from the TTB (Alcohol and Tobacco Tax & Trade Bureau), a federal agency that oversees all wine shipments into the U.S., including domestic and imported wine. Gomberg-Fredrikson has been analyzing this data for decades.
Figure 1 below illustrates the uptick in wine shipments from 127.3 million cases at the end of February 2024 to an increase of 134.4 million cases by the end of February 2025. This includes modest increases in both domestic wine and exports. There have been reports of U.S. wine buyers purchasing more imported wine to get ahead of the tariff situation in 2024, but this has continued in 2025 even with the 10% tariffs currently imposed on EU wines.
Another alcohol sales tracking firm, SipSource, also reported that sales were finding a more positive footing in April, which was a promising sign for the market.
Wine Revenues Hit Estimated $109 Billion in 2024
In addition to an increase in wine shipments to wholesalers, Jon Moramarco reported that recently released government data showed that wine sales revenue in the U.S. for 2024 was an estimated $109 billion, up from $105.4 billion in 2023 (3.42% increase).
“The data comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a part of the Commerce department, that also prepares the GDP data,” stated Moramarco. “Beverage Alcohol encompasses four of roughly 200 categories they track for consumer spending.”
Though Moramarco admits that some of the $109 billion figure has to do with inflation and rising wine costs, that overall, the situation is not as negative as other reports have suggested. This is because many other wine data analysis firms only track 50 to 70% of wine sales, primarily through scan data.
“We need to remember that the wine business is a highly fragmented marketplace,” he stated. Indeed, many wines are sold direct to consumers at winery tasting rooms, online, at events or other venues that are not tracked through the more sophisticated electronic reporting systems.
“This shows that consumers continue to spend slightly more on wine. The growth is not as large as in prior years but still positive.”Jon Moramarco, Partner & Editor, Gomberg-Fredrikson
In general, Moramarco believes the $109 billion figure to be good news. “This shows that consumers continue to spend slightly more on wine. The growth is not as large as in prior years but still positive,” he said.
The Sky is Not Falling, But Wine Businesses Need to Work Harder
When asked if the wine volume sales declines have finally hit bottom, Moramarco reported that it may appear that this is the case, but that he is cautious about calling this out given all of the uncertainties in the overall market. This includes the changing tariff situation, as well as shifting economic and regulatory conditions.
In 2024 total U.S. wine shipments (both domestic and imported wine) were down -4.1%, according to the Gomberg-Fredrikson report. This included an increase of 8.6% in imported wine, which offset the -9.1% decrease in U.S. wine shipments.
“I believe this latest data shows that the sky is not falling, but wineries still need to work hard,” stated Moramarco.
He cited the recent 2025 BMO Wine Market Report which included a survey of U.S. wineries. The report showed that 62% of wineries anticipate higher annual sales in 2025, but that others were struggling. Some wineries are up for sale, and many grape growers are scrambling to find a home for their grape harvest this year, because some contracts have been canceled.
“Consumers are evolving and driving changes in the wine market. Older consumers are increasing and data shows they drink less. (Plus), we also have good data that shows Gen Z is drinking less than prior generations. These are two headwinds that will impact all beverage alcohol categories. Wine producers need to assess how to reach their target audience, which requires some of the same historical strategies and also new strategies,” Moramarco concluded.
